Scottish Open Picks: Odds, Best Bets To Win in North Berwick

The PGA Tour heads overseas to the Renaissance Club in North Berwick this week for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open. Last year’s champion, Rory McIlroy, headlines a deep field of golfers taking on a difficult course to tune up for next week’s Open Championship.

The Rennaissance Club isn’t a typical links course. Trees line many holes, and heavy rough awaits golfers who miss the undulating fairways. That said, golfers will still face wind off the coastline, pot bunkers and greens that require precision from short- and long-distance approach shots. With an elite combination of distance off the tee, proximity to the flag and three-putt avoidance, players can achieve low scores and contend in one of golf’s best non-major tournaments.

McIlroy Leads 2024 Scottish Open Betting Odds

Xander Schauffele (7-under in 2022) and Rory McIlroy (15-under in 2023) have won the Scottish Open since it became co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in 2022. Therefore, it’s no surprise that both stars lead the field with the best odds to win this year’s tournament.

McIlroy, who hasn’t competed since last month’s collapse at the U.S. Open, is the betting favorite on every major sportsbook. The Irishman won the 2023 Scottish Open with back-to-back birdies on 17 and 18, giving him a one-shot lead over Robert MacIntyre. The Renaissance Club may be the perfect place for Rory to rediscover his confidence and become the first back-to-back winner in Scottish Open history.

There are several intriguing challengers to battle McIlroy this week. According to oddsmakers, Schauffele is neck and neck with the defending champ as the PGA Championship winner looks to continue his impressive season. Ludvig Aberg is seeking his first win of the year despite six top-10 finishes, while Viktor Hovland boasts an all-around game that plays well in North Berwick.

Some honorable mentions competing this week include Sungjae Im (+4000), Robert MacIntyre (+5000), Wyndham Clark (+5000) and 2023 Open Championship winner Brian Harman (+6000).

Several skills should be prioritized when betting on the Scottish Open. The greens are huge and undulating, so players with precise approach shots will benefit. In addition, distance off the tee will give players shorter, more manageable iron shots. And, as is the case at any links course, hitting out of deep bunkers is a must.

Weather is always a factor at the Renaissance Club. However, this week’s forecast looks mild, with scattered rain and wind rarely exceeding 10 mph. If there’s any weather-related edge, the forecast for Thursday afternoon and Friday morning golfers is better than the weather for players starting early on Thursday and ending late on Friday.

Here are five of my favorite betting picks to win the Genesis Scottish Open:

Ludvig Aberg +1500 (bet365)

When healthy, Aberg has proven himself to be a player that elevates his play in big tournaments. The Swede finished second at the Masters in April, fifth at the Memorial in June and 12th at the U.S. Open. However, he has qualities outside of moxie that make him an intriguing bet to win the Scottish Open.

Aberg is eighth on the PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained (SG), third in Total Driving and ninth in SG: Approach. In the last six months, Aberg has gained three or more strokes from tee and approach shots in nearly 28% of his rounds, more than anyone in this week’s field. The 24-year-old’s elite ball striking should help him on a course where distance and accuracy are crucial for success.

Collin Morikawa +1700 (bet365)

Morikawa has had five top-10 results since his T3 finish at Augusta and nothing worse than T23. That momentum, as well as his track record on links courses and favorable tee time, should help the 2021 Open champ contend in Scotland.

Morikawa is one of the PGA Tour’s best all-around players. The 27-year-old is sixth in SG: Total, 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in driving accuracy. At his best, he’s in the conversation of one of golf’s best iron players. In addition, Morikawa has gained 2+ shots from tee to green in 18 of his last 36 rounds, tied with McIlroy for the best in the field.

Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (DraftKings)

After McIlroy and Schauffele, Fleetwood possesses the best track record at the Renaissance Club. The Englishman finished fourth in 2022 and sixth in 2023, and he enters this year’s tournament hungry for his first PGA Tour victory.

Fleetwood, 33, hasn’t finished lower than T26 since April. He ranks 25th in SG: Around-the-Green and 10th in scrambling this season, which comes into play for short bump-and-run shots. While he doesn’t have elite distance off the tee or an iron game like Morikawa’s, his performances at this course make him a threat.

Wyndham Clark +5000 (FanDuel)

We’re going off the board with a player who’s much better than the odds he’s getting. Clark enters the Scottish Open off a T9 finish at the Travelers Championship and should find himself in contention this weekend.

The 30-year-old Clark hits bombs off the tee, entering the tournament fifth in average driving distance. His overall approach numbers aren’t great, but he’s second on the tour in approaches inside 100 yards, giving himself putts just inside 12 feet on average. Clark, who won the U.S. Open in 2023, is also seventh in strokes gained from the bunker.

Byeong Hun An +7000 (ESPN BET)

Like Fleetwood, An is another long-time pro searching for his first win. The 32-year-old has five top-10 finishes in 2024 and shot 10-under at the Renaissance Club in 2023 to finish in third place.

An is one of golf’s best drivers off the tee, ranking fourth in average distance. This allows him to capitalize on par 4 and par 5 holes, which comprise 13 of this course’s 18 holes. There’s a boom-or-bust quality with his putter, but based on his performance here last season, An offers decent value for bettors targeting a longshot winner.

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