Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely replacement for President Joe Biden, who dropped his 2024 presidential bid and endorsed Harris Sunday—and she is performing about the same as Biden in head-to-head polls with Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the 2024 ESSENCE Festival of Culture at the Ernest N. Morial … [+] Convention Center in New Orleans, Louisiana on July 6, 2024 . (Photo by Christiana Botic for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Key Facts
Biden and Harris both trailed Trump by six points (53% to 47%, including voters who lean one way or another) in a Forbes/HarrisX poll conducted July 19-21, after the Republican National Convention but before Biden dropped out.
A flurry of polls conducted in the wake of Biden’s disastrous late June debate and the attempted assassination of Trump showed Harris performing roughly the same as Biden against Trump, who has been leading by a slim margin for months—though a few show Harris performing better than Biden.
One CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week gave Harris a slight edge: Trump led Harris by three points (51%-48%), while leading Biden by five (52%-47%) among likely voters (the poll’s margin of error was 2.7 points).
However, an Economist/YouGov poll (margin of error 3.1) conducted July 13-16 and released Thursday found Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would perform slightly worse, losing to Trump 39% to 44%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted and released Tuesday—after the attempted assassination of Trump—found both Biden and Harris are virtually statistically tied with Trump, but 69% of respondents saw Biden as too old to work in government (margin of error 3.1).
Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi found Harris beating the former president 42% to 41% (margin of error 3.1) in a survey released July 9 and first obtained by Politico, while Biden, Whitmer and Newsom all trail Trump.
A YouGov poll conducted July 3-6 found more Democrats and independents who lean Democrat preferred Biden over Harris as the nominee, 47% to 32%, while 21% said they weren’t sure (margin of error 4).
In a CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 3.5) conducted June 28-30, Harris outperformed Biden, and three other potential candidates commonly floated to replace him, in a hypothetical matchup against Trump—but she would still lose to the former president by two points (while Biden would lose to Trump by six points).
Big Number
3.2. That’s how many points Trump led Biden by as of July 19, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, compared to 0.7 points on June 28, the day after the debate, and 0.2 on June 27, ahead of the debate.
Surprising Fact
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (who is not among the Democrats commonly floated as potential Biden replacements) would beat Trump by a slightly wider margin, 43% to 41%, according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. When the poll tested Biden replacements with potential running mates, a ticket with Clinton at the top and Harris as the vice presidential nominee outperformed all other hypothetical Biden-replacement scenarios, showing them beating Trump 43% to 40%. Former First Lady Michelle Obama (another long-shot replacement prospect) would also far outperform Harris, Biden and other potential replacements against Trump, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed her leading Trump 50% to 39%.
What To Watch For
While Harris is the most likely replacement for Biden, some pundits and prominent Democrats have floated the idea of a “mini primary” in which candidates could compete for Biden’s delegates through a series of high-profile party-sponsored events, such as debates and town halls. Harris has polled better than other Democrats commonly floated as replacement candidates to Biden, but the polls didn’t factor in how months of campaigning could change voters’ perceptions of many of the lesser-known candidates that don’t have the benefit of national name recognition like Harris does.
Tangent
Harris has many upsides: she benefits from name recognition and she could seamlessly take over Biden’s $91 million campaign war chest since she’s already on his ticket. But she also comes with some risks, including a string of unflattering reviews of her performance as vice president, reports of dysfunction in her office and relatively low approval ratings.
Key Background
Biden dropped out Sunday after refusing calls to step aside in the race and launching a clean-up effort to revive his candidacy in the wake of the debate, including sitting for a fresh round of media interviews, rallying his allies in Congress and publicly—and firmly—pushing back against calls for him to resign.
How Does Harris Perform At The State Level?
Harris is seeing similar success in some state polls as she is in national polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll from Monday and conducted July 9-12 found Harris fared better than Biden in two battleground states, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Pennsylvania, Biden was down by 3 points to Trump while Harris was down 1 point, and in Virginia Harris led Trump by 5 points, while Biden led by 3. However, an Emerson College poll released Thursday in Virginia found Biden and Harris were both down 2 points to Trump.
Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated Trump’s lead over Biden in the polls on the day of the debate: Trump led Biden by 0.7 points on June 28, the day after the debate, and by 0.2 points on June 27, ahead of the debate, according to Five Thirty Eight.
Further Reading
Kamala Harris’ Running Mate: Here’s Who Could Be Her VP If She Replaces Biden (Forbes)
Senior House Democrat Rep. Nadler Reverses Course—Now Says He Supports Biden (Forbes)
