UFC 304 Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Allen Vs. Chikadze

UFC 304 Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Allen Vs. Chikadze

TORONTO, ONTARIO – JANUARY 20: Arnold Allen of England prepares to face Movsar Evloev of Russia … [+] during the UFC 297 event at Scotiabank Arena on January 20, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

It’s almost time for UFC 304. The promotion’s next fight card, the UFC 304 pay-per-view, takes place on Saturday at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. UFC 304 features two title fights, both of which are rematches. In the main event, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards faces Belal Muhammad. In the UFC 304 co-headliner, interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall faces Curtis Blaydes.

UFC 304 takes place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10:00 p.m. ET. The ESPN2 prelims begin at 8:00 p.m. ET and follow the ESPN+ streaming early prelims, which start at 6:15 p.m. ET.

The UFC 304 PPV card’s opening fight is an important contest in the UFC’s featherweight division. In that matchup, Arnold Allen faces Giga Chikadze.

Allen, the No. 6 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings, is looking to end a two-fight losing skid. Chikadze, who is ranked at No. 10 in the 145-pound weight class, hopes to pick up back-to-back wins in his first outing in nearly a year.

Below, we take a deep dive into the Allen vs. Chikadze matchup.

Careers

Arnold Allen

TORONTO, ONTARIO – JANUARY 20: (R-L) Arnold Allen of England punches Movsar Evloev of Russia in a … [+] featherweight bout during the UFC 297 event at Scotiabank Arena on January 20, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Arnold “Almighty” Allen (19-3) joined the UFC in 2015 at 21 years old. The English fighter was 9-1 at the time. Allen made a statement in that fight, submitting the much more experienced Alan Omer in the third round and picking up a “Performance of the Night” bonus for his upset win.

Allen would face increasingly more formidable and well-known opponents over the next five years. In 2021, following decision wins over Gilbert Melendez and Nik Lentz, Allen broke into the featherweight rankings. When he faced Sodiq Yusuff in 2021, Allen was 16-1 overall and 7-0 in the UFC. He also was ranked No. 10 in the 145-pound division. His decision win over Yusuff moved him to No. 7, and set up a bout against Dan Hooker.

Allen scored his first UFC knockout when he faced Hooker, ending the fight at 2:33 of the first round. Following the win over Hooker, Allen picked up a TKO win over Calvin Kattar when a knee injury prevented Kattar from fighting past the 8-second mark of the second round.

The biggest fight of Allen’s career followed the Kattar win. Ranked No. 4 at the time, Allen faced former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway in the main event of a UFC Fight Night card in Kansas City. Allen lasted five rounds with the former champ, but Holloway took home the decision win that night in April 2023, handing Allen his first UFC loss and his first setback since 2014.

In his most recent bout, Allen dropped a decision to Movsar Evloev in January of this year.

Giga Chikadze

SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE – AUGUST 26: Giga Chikadze of Georgia prepares to face Alex Caceres in a … [+] featherweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at Singapore Indoor Stadium on August 26, 2023 in Singapore. (Photo by Suhaimi Abdullah/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Giga Chikadze had a long kickboxing career before he decided to focus on MMA. Chikadze joined the UFC in 2019 after a 2018 loss on the Dana White Contender Series sent him back to the Gladiator Challenge promotion for two fights. When Chikadze joined the UFC he was 7-2 with six knockouts and one submission win.

Chikadze’s UFC career started slowly. He won his first four fights by decision. But then, in November 2020, he seemed to find his groove. Less than a month after beating Omar Morales by decision, Chikadze dropped Jamey Simmons with a head kick before finishing the fight on the ground at 3:51 of Round 1. TThat win began a stretch of three consecutive TKO wins and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses for Chikadze, including knockouts of “name” fighters Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson.

That three-fight run put Chikadze into the top 10 of the division and set him up for a main event scrap against Kattar. At the time of that 2022 matchup, Chikadze was ranked No. 8, while Kattar checked in at No. 5. The fight went the distance, and Kattar swept Chikadze on the scorecards, but the scrap earned “Fight of the Night” honors.

Chikadze did not fight again until he met Alex Caceres in Singapore in August 2023. Chikadze won that matchup by decision.

UFC 304 Betting Odds: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Allen opened as a -218 betting favorite over Chikadze, who came in as the +180 betting underdog. As fight night approaches, Allen has moved to -250, and Chikadze is +205.

Significant Stats

Allen lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 40 percent. His striking defense is 61 percent and he absorbs 2.91 significant strikes per minute. Allen lands an average of 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50 percent and takedown defense is 75 percent.

Chikadze is more active and accurate than his opponent, however, he gets hit more often. Chikadze lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43 percent. His striking defense of 62 percent allows him to absorb 3.44 significant strikes per minute. Chikadze averages 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 33 percent. His takedown defense is 69 percent.

UFC 304 Prediction and Pick: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

The betting pick for this fight is that Allen will use his superior all-around MMA skills to control that pace and location of the battle and pick up a decision win over Chikadze.

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