Team USA Olympic soccer scenarios: What the Americans need vs. Guinea to advance to quarterfinals

Following their 4-1 victory over New Zealand, the United States U-23 men’s soccer team is now back in control of their destiny i Group A at the 2024 Paris Olympics. That victory was enough to pull their goal difference back to even after a 3-0 loss to France which is important because goal difference is the first tiebreaker in Olympic group stage play.

The top two of each group advance to the knockout stages so this victory gives the United States a great chance of making the knockouts where they’d face a team in Group B which contains Iraq, Argentina, Morocco, and Ukraine. The first place team in Group A will face the second placed team in that group, while the second placed team in Group A will face the first-place team from Group B.

Here’s a look at how the United States can qualify for the knockout stages:

Group standings and schedule

All times Eastern. All matches are available on Fubo (Try for free).

July 24
Guinea 1, New Zealand 2
France 3, United States 0

July 27
New Zealand 1, United States 4
France 1, Guinea 0

July 30
United States vs. Guinea, 1 p.m. on USA
New Zealand vs. France, 1 p.m. on Universo

Advancement scenarios

• With a victory against Guinea: The United States will qualify for the knockout round. While France or New Zealand can still win the group, if one of them were to win their match against the other, it would see the United States still finish second via goal difference.
• With a draw against Guinea: The United States will only qualify for the knockout round if New Zealand lose or draw while still having a worse goal difference than the United States.
• With a loss against Guinea: Things get quite tough for the United States. They have a goal difference of zero so losing by one goal to Guinea while New Zealand also lose to France would bring it to the second tiebreaker in all matches which is goals scored in the group stage. The United States would only advance in that 1-0 loss scenario due to scoring more goals than Guinea but losing by more than one goal would see Guinea advance on goal difference and New Zealand picking up a point would see them jump ahead on points.

Olympic tiebreakers

1. Goal difference in all group matches
2. Goals scored in all group matches
3. Points obtained in matches between teams tied on points
4. Goal difference in matches between teams tied on points
5. Goals scored in matches between teams tied on points
6. Best team disciplinary conduct score (yellow cards and red cards received)
7. Random draw