Analyst Warns: Bitcoin Nears Dangerous Territory – $40,000 On The Horizon?

Analyst Warns: Bitcoin Nears Dangerous Territory – $40,000 On The Horizon?
Analyst Warns: Bitcoin Nears Dangerous Territory – $40K on the Horizon?

Bitcoin is trading for $59,545, a slight increase of 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Although little, this surge in its price is quite noteworthy as it comes against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s price plunging as low as $57,812 earlier today.

Regardless of this modest recovery, a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant author on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform has revealed that Bitcoin might now be approaching a precarious position.

Bears At The Gates? Analyzing BTC’s Vulnerable Stance

According to the CryptoQuant analyst Grizzly, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric—a tool used to gauge the market’s profit or loss status by comparing unrealized profit and loss—hovers near a pivotal threshold—0.4 level.

Grizzly disclosed that this level historically acts as a vital juncture, either as support that boosts the market’s spirits or as a resistance that spells a downturn.

Will the bears seize control of the market?

“The NUPL metric is currently positioned near a critical level. Historically, the 0.4 level has served as a significant point of support and resistance.” – By @GrizzlyBTClover

Read more 👇https://t.co/Q0Nuwu6Xz8 pic.twitter.com/sePvAvWg44

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 15, 2024

Current data suggests that Bitcoin is teetering close to this level, and a dip below could firmly hand the reins over to the bears, potentially dragging the market into a bearish phase.

According to Grizzly, the implications of such a move could see Bitcoin’s price retract to as low as $40,000, a major decline from its current market prices. The analyst particularly noted:

Data shows that a breach below this [0.4] level often marks the onset of a substantial downward trend. If the index continues its downward movement, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the bears could take full control of the market. In such a scenario, the price could drop to around $40,000.

Meanwhile, despite these ominous signs, it’s worth approaching the revealed data with a balanced perspective. Grizzly pointed out that the current decline in Bitcoin’s value while concerning, has not yet escalated to a level that conclusively signals the end of its bullish trajectory.

Historical data supports cautious optimism, as previous instances have shown that Bitcoin can rebound from similar positions, defying bearish expectations and sustaining its upward trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving sideways on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Bullish Take On Bitcoin

On the flip side, historical data may also suggest a potential rebound for Bitcoin. Earlier today, a renowned analyst in the crypto space known as Titan of Crypto on X disclosed an interesting recurring trend in Bitcoin.

According to Titan of Crypto, “historically, the 4th month after the halving has always been bullish for BTC, closing above the halving price.” The analyst added: “If this pattern repeats, September could be a bullish month above $66,000.”

Bitcoin chart illustrating the uptick seen the 4th month after halving
Bitcoin chart illustrating the uptick seen in the 4th month after halving. | Source: Titan of Crypto on X

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme


Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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