- The Japanese Yen incurrs losses following cautious remarks from BoJ policymaker Himino.
- The JPY’s downside could be restrained as traders expect the BoJ to increase interest rates further.
- The US Dollar rebounds amid a risk-off mood, but the upside appears limited on dovish Fed bets.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) stays on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) early Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair clings to recovery gains, courtesy of the cautious comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, who said that “BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary accommodation if it has growing confidence that its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized.”
However, divergent policy outlooks between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve (Fed) could restrict the USD/JPY pair’s uptick.
The downside for the JPY may be limited by the hawkish sentiment surrounding the BoJ, with the central bank on track to raise interest-rates further. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked at the Jackson Hole Symposium that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” However, Powell did not specify the timing or magnitude of potential rate cuts.
Additionally, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly mentioned in a Bloomberg TV interview on Monday that “the time is upon us” to begin reducing interest rates, likely starting with a quarter-percentage point cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen loses ground after BoJ commentary
- Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that foreign exchange rates are influenced by a variety of factors, including monetary policies, interest rate differentials, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment. Suzuki added that it is difficult to predict how these factors will impact FX rates.
- US Durable Goods Orders surged by 9.9% month-over-month in July, rebounding from a 6.9% decline in June. This increase significantly outpaced the expected 4.0% rise, marking the largest gain since May 2020.
- Bloomberg reported on Friday that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized the need for the US central bank to lower interest rates gradually. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that monetary policy is currently at its most restrictive, with the Fed now focusing on achieving its employment mandate.
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed the Japanese parliament on Friday, stating that he is “not considering selling long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as a tool for adjusting interest rates.” He noted that any reduction in JGB purchases would only account for about 7-8% of the balance sheet, which is a relatively small decrease. Ueda added that if the economy aligns with their projections, there could be a phase where they might adjust interest rates slightly further.
- Japan’s National Consumer Price Index increased by 2.8% year-on-year in July, maintaining this rate for the third consecutive month and remaining at its highest level since February. Additionally, the National CPI excluding Fresh Food rose by 2.7%, the highest reading since February, aligning with expectations.
- The US Composite PMI edged down to 54.1 in August, a four-month low, from 54.3 in July, but remained above market expectations of 53.5. This indicates continued expansion in US business activity, marking 19 consecutive months of growth.
- FOMC Minutes for July’s policy meeting indicated that most Fed officials agreed last month that they would likely cut their benchmark interest rate at the upcoming meeting in September as long as inflation continued to cool.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains above 144.00
USD/JPY trades well above 144.00 on Wednesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is testing the downtrend line, suggesting a weakening bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 30, suggesting a confirmation of a bearish trend.
On the downside, if the USD/JPY pair stays below the downtrend line, it could hover around the seven-month low of 141.69, recorded on August 5. A break below this level might push the pair toward the throwback support at 140.25.
In terms of resistance, the USD/JPY pair may challenge the immediate barrier at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around the 145.23 level. A breakthrough above this level could pave the way for the pair to explore the area near the throwback-turned-resistance at 154.50.
USD/JPY: Daily Chart
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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