Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield was fantastic, finishing as a top-three fantasy QB while posting a completion percentage over expectation (+12.7) in the 92nd percentile. He got 9.6 YPA and threw four touchdowns for the fifth time in his career, benefitting from playing a Washington defense that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. Mayfield will return to middling fantasy value in less favorable matchups, but it was certainly an encouraging first game without Dave Canales.
Mike Evans saw a modest six targets but turned two into touchdowns, as he’s sure to be on his way to the Hall of Fame. Chris Godwin was due for touchdown regression after last season and scored right away. He led Tampa Bay with eight targets and will continue to benefit from playing more out of the slot in 2024. Jalen McMillan impressed throughout camp and made an immediate impact. The rookie drew a long PI penalty in the third quarter and later scored. Mayfield has a third strong target this season.
Bucky Irving ran for twice as many yards (62) as Rachaad White on six fewer carries. White will continue to have fantasy value, as he’s so heavily involved as a receiver (six targets Sunday), but he’s an ineffective runner who’s going to continue to lose rushing work to the rookie throughout the season.
Jayden Daniels was also a top-three fantasy QB in his NFL debut this week, but he accomplished it in a very different way than Mayfield during Washington’s blowout loss. Daniels’ first career pass attempt resulted in a 13-yard loss officially ruled a fumble, and he missed Terry McLaurin for a potential 70-yard touchdown on the first play of the second half. He threw for just 184 scoreless yards, but Daniels led all rushers in this game with 88 yards and two touchdowns. There will be ugly plays, but Daniels got 7.7 YPA and encouragingly took just two sacks.
Daniels is fast, and his legs give him both a high fantasy floor and ceiling. Treat Daniels as a top-eight fantasy QB moving forward.
McLaurin deserves better, but he’s in for another year of QB hell. No Washington player saw more than four targets Sunday, and McLaurin needs to be downgraded. Austin Ekeler looked good in limited work, but this is Brian Robinson’s backfield. Robinson had a hard touchdown run and just barely fell short of a second score later. He’s capable of continuing to contribute as a receiver and can easily finish as a top-12 fantasy back this year.
• Washington missed both field goal attempts and had a kickoff out of bounds.
• Tampa Bay has gone an NFL-high 21 straight games without an opening drive touchdown.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
• Jared Goff had thrown 44 touchdowns over 17 home games over the last two years but had just one Sunday night (and benefitted from a dropped interception). David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both scored 1-yard touchdowns, combining for as many rush attempts (28) as Goff had passes.
• Jameson Williams was the star Sunday night, shaking off an ankle injury to record 121 yards and a long touchdown. Williams had never recorded 70 yards during a game before Sunday night’s eruption, and it comes after he was given a ton of praise throughout camp. Williams’ emergence is a concern for the fantasy managers of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
• Matthew Stafford did what he could with the Rams down to their third left tackle and losing Puka Nacua to a knee injury in the second quarter.
• Cooper Kupp saw a whopping 21 targets, and he’s a threat to be the league’s top fantasy wideout if Nacua misses time. Colby Parkinson and Demarcus Robinson also become waiver wire options.
• Kyren Williams saw 18 of 20 RB carries, as Ronnie Rivers acted as LA’s backup over rookie Blake Corum.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
• Justin Fields failed to produce the fantasy line we wanted, but his 14 carries suggest he’ll be a top-12 option should he get more starts in the future.
• Arthur Smith comically played Van Jefferson more than George Pickens, but the latter remains a top-25 WR moving forward (assuming it wasn’t injury-related).
• Najee Harris dominated carries and will see more targets once Russell Wilson is starting. Jaylen Warren saw half as many carries (two) as Cordarrelle Patterson and belongs on fantasy benches until further notice.
• Chris Boswell punted once and went 6-for-6 on field goals, including three 50+ yarders. Pittsburgh was one of two teams to win without scoring a touchdown Sunday.
• Kirk Cousins didn’t have the easiest first matchup (the Falcons had to switch to a silent count early at home thanks to the traveling Pittsburgh fans) coming off Achilles surgery and with a new team, but questions will surround his health after Atlanta used pistol or shotgun on 96% on its snaps.
• Drake London’s fantasy managers have the right to panic. London and Kyle Pitts combined for fewer targets (six) and receiving yards (41) than Ray-Ray McCloud.
• Bijan Robinson saw 23 opportunities compared to just three for Tyler Allgeier. Much bigger fantasy games are ahead.
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
• Josh Allen was incredible while finishing as fantasy’s top-scoring QB in Week 1 despite having attempted just two passes at the two-minute warning of the first half. Allen injured his non-throwing hand during his sick second TD run, which is something to monitor. He had a third TD run nullified by penalty earlier.
• James Cook came off the field during two-minute drives but encouragingly saw work inside the five. Still, he has just one rushing touchdown over his last 16 games (including playoffs), and Allen will continue to limit his fantasy value.
• Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins scored (and Allen missed a wide-open Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 65-yard TD), but it was Keon Coleman who led Buffalo WRs in snaps, routes, targets, catches and yards. It’s an encouraging start for the rookie.
• Dalton Kincaid recorded just one catch on two targets and was ignored throughout the day. His participation figures to be affected by Dawson Knox, but it’s worth noting the Bills attempted just 23 passes all game. Stay patient here.
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• Kyler Murray made plays with his legs, but he struggled mightily on passes 10+ yards downfield in the windy conditions. The Cardinals have the excuse of resting their starters throughout the preseason, so a slow start can be expected.
• James Conner saw 20 opportunities and recorded a touchdown for his sixth straight game. Conner is a top-12 fantasy back while healthy.
• The Bills provided safety help to cover Marvin Harrison Jr. throughout Sunday’s game, but his ugly NFL debut started with a bad drop on his first career target midway through the second quarter. Three targets are unacceptable, but in Harrison’s defense, he didn’t play during the preseason, and Murray didn’t see a wide-open Harrison late in the fourth quarter that would’ve resulted in the game-winning touchdown (and a much different perception of the rookie’s first NFL game).
• The Cardinals had their first kick-return touchdown in 145 games but still haven’t won in Buffalo since 1971.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
• Caleb Williams struggled mightily during his first NFL action, getting an anemic 3.2 YPA (!) and a CPOE (-19.7) in the third percentile. He joined Desmond Ridder as the only two QBs in modern history to attempt more than 25 passes and throw for fewer than 100 yards during their debuts. Keenan Allen dropped a touchdown on a nice throw late in the second quarter, but Williams was a fantasy bust offering little with his legs as well. A higher pass rate on first downs would help, but coaching figures to remain a hurdle for the Bears this season.
• Chicago won despite getting 2.8 yards per play (and fewer than 150 total yards) thanks to a punt block returned for a touchdown and an ugly pick 6 by Will Levis. Williams somehow became the first No. 1 pick to win his debut since 2002.
• Levis managed a lowly 4.0 YPA and committed three turnovers. Early returns with Brian Callahan aren’t positive, but new systems take time and the Bears were strong defensively down the stretch last year.
• Tony Pollard dominated Tennessee’s backfield, while Tyjae Spears belongs on fantasy benches for now.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
• Rhamondre Stevenson forced seven more missed tackles Sunday than any other running back during a beastly performance. He’s capable of overcoming his tough situation in New England and continuing to deliver for fantasy managers.
• Joe Burrow played as poorly as Bryce Young and Daniel Jones during another ugly season-opening loss. Burrow threw nearly 70% of his passes short of the sticks Sunday, with only Justin Fields having a higher rate. He did so while seeing the third-lowest pressure rate of his career! It was an odd game that featured just 48 offensive plays for Cincinnati, but it’s obviously not what fantasy managers expected from a Bengals team that entered Week 1 as the heaviest favorite. Vibes remain shaky in Cincinnati.
• Ja’Marr Chase played 40 of 48 snaps, and he’ll benefit from Tee Higgins’ injury moving forward.
• Mike Gesicki had a seemingly nice TD catch overturned by replay, and then Tanner Hudson turned a sure touchdown into a lost fumble on the very next play.
• The Bengals also lost a fumble during a third-quarter punt return, as 35-45% of Survivor entries went down. Zac Taylor is now 1-6 in season openers.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
• C.J. Stroud played well and hit Nico Collins on a nice deep ball, but Houston’s rushing attack led the way Sunday.
• Joe Mixon looked great and took full advantage of the plus matchup. He’ll continue to dominate Houston’s backfield while healthy.
• We got the full Anthony Richardson experience Sunday, as he mixed numerous bad throws with highlight plays, ultimately finishing as fantasy’s QB4 this week. AR completed just nine passes (-14.2 CPOE) but got 11.2 YPA and totaled three TDs. The youngest starting QB in the league in Week 1 for the second straight season, Richardson had an errant throw on 4th-and-1, ending the opening drive; he’d later miss Adonai Mitchell for a wide-open 30-yard TD in the second quarter and then another would-be 65-yard touchdown to Mitchell in the fourth. But Richardson also had the longest completion by air distance (65.3 yards) in the NFL over the last two seasons on an absolute dime, and he added an impressive TD run on fourth down. Please stay healthy.
• The Colts have now gone 11 straight seasons without winning a Week 1 game.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
• Tua Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards but missed a wide-open Tyreek Hill for a 52-yard TD in the first quarter. He was also robbed of a touchdown pass after a De’Von Achane catch was erroneously ruled just short of the goal line late in the first half, with the RB punching in a score the next play.
• Miami’s rushing attack was a bust, but Achane’s seven targets (and GL score) saved his fantasy day. Miami’s offense is typically better early in the season, but Jacksonville can be tough against the run.
• Hill began his day detained by Miami police and ended it No. 2 among receivers in fantasy scoring Sunday. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle spent time in the medical tent (as per usual) but returned to also eclipse 100 yards.
• Travis Etienne split carries evenly with Tank Bigsby and lost a fumble while running into the end zone that would’ve put Jacksonville ahead 24-7. Instead, Hill recorded an 80-yard touchdown catch on the very next play. It appears Jacksonville will go ahead with its plans to decrease Etienne’s workload this season.
• Brian Thomas Jr. hauled in all four targets, including a nice touchdown catch. He’s the anti-Calvin Ridley while able to get both feet in the back of the end zone.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
• Derek Carr had three first-half touchdown passes against a Carolina defense that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs last season. Game script prevented a bigger day, as only 23 passes were needed in the blowout.
• Rashid Shaheed scored the first touchdown of Week 1’s Sunday action with a 59-yard house call, while Chris Olave saw two targets for 11 scoreless yards during a game in which New Orleans scored 47 points.
• Alvin Kamara had a TD run nullified by penalty but scored later during the same drive.
• Bryce Young was awful with a CPOE (-15.3) in the sixth percentile. He was picked on his first pass attempt of the game and his second after halftime. New systems take patience, but I’m willing to reevaluate any Panthers hope after one week. Dave Canales has his work cut out for him.
• Diontae Johnson, who’s historically been much more productive against man-heavy defenses like New Orleans, was held to 19 scoreless yards during a game indoors and with Carolina pass-heavy while down big. Not bullish.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
• Sam Darnold played well, and Aaron Jones looked rejuvenated. The Vikings’ offense would’ve put up more stats if not for the lopsided score.
• Jalen Nailor led the league in average separation score last season and scored a touchdown Sunday. Jordan Addison left with another ankle injury (not expected to be serious), so Nailor is worth waiver wire consideration.
• Daniel Jones was brutal, getting just 4.4 YPA and throwing a pick 6. He’s at real risk of getting benched later this season as New York moves on at quarterback in 2025.
• Malik Nabers didn’t have a splashy debut, but he led New York in receiving yards and had a 100% route participation during all 50 dropbacks. The rookie also produced +4.1 EPA compared to -20.7 EPA when Nabers wasn’t involved Sunday. He’s going to be a good one, but we need Jones to be somewhat competent.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
• J.K. Dobbins had four rushing yards at halftime but erupted for 131 afterward. He was caught from behind during two long runs in the third and fourth quarters, with the latter L.A.’s longest rush in two seasons. Dobbins clearly lacks his previous explosion after the surgeries, but he was far more effective than Gus Edwards on Sunday and is firmly on the fantasy scene. The Chargers have a strong offensive line and want to run the ball, but game script won’t always be so favorable.
• Ladd McConkey scored and led Chargers WRs in targets during his NFL debut, as Josh Palmer took a backseat Sunday.
• Zamir White had six yards on six touches at halftime and lost a fumble in the third quarter. Alexander Mattison scored the longest touchdown of his career Sunday and out-snapped White 36 to 23. Not good for White’s fantasy outlook.
• Brock Bowers led the Raiders with eight targets. It’s a tough setup for Davante Adams to return top-20 value.
• The Raiders’ fourth-and-1 punt in plus territory when down a score in the fourth quarter was the league’s first since Rex Ryan’s Bills in 2016.
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
• Geno Smith threw a bad pick on the opening drive as Seattle’s offense struggled in the first half, but a 34-yard touchdown run saved his fantasy day.
• Seattle’s offensive line greatly improved after halftime, helping Kenneth Walker top 100 yards and score. Walker had a second TD run called back by an extremely shaky DK Metcalf holding penalty, and he was the Seahawks’ clear lead back before leaving late with an abdomen injury. Walker spoke to the media afterward, so hopefully the injury isn’t too serious.
• Seattle muffed a punt twice on the same play (losing a fumble) and overcame two safeties to win.
• Javonte Williams looked sluggish, turning two early possible touchdown runs into 10 yards, and he was barely heard from again. Meanwhile, Audric Estime fumbled during his first NFL carry (Denver recovered) and finished with two touches, while Jaleel McLaughlin got just 2.7 YPC and lost a fumble. Not an ideal start for Denver’s running backs.
• Bo Nix got 3.3 YPA, which is the sixth-lowest in a game since the merger. He’s one of just three quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 138 yards or fewer on 42+ attempts during an inauspicious NFL debut.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
• Dak Prescott wasn’t needed much during a dominant defensive performance by Dallas. The Cowboys look like an evenly split backfield, with Ezekiel Elliott the favorite for passing-down and goal-line work.
• Kavontae Turpin had his first career punt return for a touchdown, as Dallas picked up from last season with another D/ST score.
• Brandon Aubrey made a 66-yard FG that would’ve tied the NFL record, but a delay of game penalty ruined it.
• Jake Ferguson and David Njoku both left injured, as it was an absolutely brutal day for tight ends across the league in Week 1. Foster Moreau led TEs in fantasy scoring Sunday.
• Deshaun Watson had no completed passes go more than five yards, and Cleveland’s longest play was eight yards during the first half. Watson suffered from an Amari Cooper drop and was constantly under siege by a relentless Dallas pass rush while Cleveland was missing both starting tackles. Still, Watson managed just 3.8 YPA and continues to look like the worst contract in professional sports.
• My first reaction to Tom Brady the announcer is he was quiet. But I don’t mind the less is more approach, and there’s plenty of time for him to grow into the role.
