- EUR/USD rises as increasing bets of a large cut by the Federal Reserve weigh on the US Dollar.
- The ECB said it remains data-dependent for further monetary policy action after Thursday’s cut.
- ECB’s President Lagarde refrained from providing a specific interest-rate cut path.
EUR/USD strengthens at the expense of a weak US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its downside to near 101.00. The Greenback faces sharp selling pressure as market speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday soars.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% in September has increased sharply to 43% from 14% after the US PPI data release.
Thursday’s PPI data showed that the producer inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace year-over-year in August. The headline inflation rose by 1.7%, slower than the estimates of 1.8% and from 2.1% in July, downwardly revised from 2.2%. In the same period, the core producer inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose steadily by 2.4%, slower than expectations of 2.5%.
A slower pace in the price increase of goods and services at factory gates suggests a sluggish consumer spending trend, which historically prompts Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets.
Meanwhile, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data for September has come in better-thyan-expected. The sentiment data rose to 69.0, which was estimated to have remained almost steady at 68.0.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD jumps higher as soft US annual PPI weighs on Greenback
- EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1100 in Friday’s New York session. The major currency pair rises as the Euro (EUR) strengthens following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday, and the US Dollar (USD) weakens after soft United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August. The ECB cuts its Rate On Deposit Facility by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, as widely anticipated.
- The central bank was already expected to cut its key borrowing rates as the Eurozone economic outlook appears to have faltered due to a weak demand environment and price pressures in the old continent continue to decelerate.
- The outlook of the Euro has improved due to the absence of a pre-defined interest rate cut path in the monetary policy statement and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Comments from Lagarde indicated that the central bank will follow a data-centric approach, saying, “the interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of inflation outlook in light of incoming economic and financial data, dynamics of underlying inflation and strength of monetary policy transmission,” at the press conference.
- For the remainder of the year, market participants see the ECB reducing interest rates one more time as price pressures are expected to soften further. In the late Asian session, ECB policymaker Joachin Nagel told German radio Deutschlandfunk, “We assume that core inflation will improve, especially with the declining wage trend in the Eurozone.”
- In the economic data front, Eurozone Industrial Production decreased by 2.2% year-over-year (YoY) in July, Eurostat reported on Friday. The number was better than the -2.7% expected and the -4.1% (revised from -3.9%) seen in June. On a monthly basis, Industrial Production decreased by 0.3%, as expected.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovers strongly from 1.1000
EUR/USD soars after retesting the breakout of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a daily timeframe near the psychological support of 1.1000. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair has strengthened as it has climbed above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.1055.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A bullish momentum would trigger after breaking above 60.00.
Looking up, last week’s high of 1.1155 and the round-level resistance of 1.1200 will act as major barricades for the Euro bulls. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.1000 and the July 17 high near 1.0950 will be major support zones.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Next release: Wed Sep 18, 2024 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 5.25%
Previous: 5.5%
Source: Federal Reserve
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