Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds, particularly from Western investors, are set to rise in coming months, adding yet more positive stimulus for already record-high bullion prices, analysts said.
Gold prices have surged some 27% so far this year to vault $2,600 per ounce, benefiting directly from looser central bank monetary policy and pockets of geo-political tension.
Interest rate-cutting cycles in the US, Europe and latterly China, have fanned bullish sentiment, with players focused on further gains including another record milestone of $3,000.
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs), or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), allow investors to gain exposure to assets like gold without taking delivery. Any rise in holdings is significant for prices, as ETPs are backed by the physical commodity.
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Increased inflows will reduce the supply of precious metals available in the market, bolstering prices further. “Now that the rate-cutting cycle has commenced, we think ETP inflows are likely to accelerate, supporting the next leg higher in gold,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said.
“ETP flows, which typically have a stronger correlation with real yields and the dollar, have turned positive. The bulk of the inflows have come from Europe, but over the past two months, North America has led fresh interest.”
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold ETFs saw inflows of 28.5 tonnes, or $2.1 billion, in August with all regions reporting positive flows while western funds contributed the lion’s share.
North America added inflows of 17.2 tonnes or $1.4 billion last month. Softer U.S. economic data, dovish Fed comments, declines in the dollar and yields, as well as lowering opportunity costs fueled inflows, the WGC added.
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This comes after gold ETFs had three straight years of outflows amid high global interest rates. The latest four months of inflows have only managed to trim the year-to-date losses to a net outflow of 44 metric tons.
Last week, the Federal Reserve kicked off an anticipated series of interest rate cuts with a larger-than-usual half-percentage-point reduction. The European Central Bank cut rates in June and also earlier this month.
China’s central bank on Tuesday announced broad monetary stimulus and property market support measures to revive an economy grappling with strong deflationary pressures. Beijing’s new measures include a planned 50 basis point cut to banks’ reserve requirements.
Major banks like J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and UBS have reiterated their bullish stance on gold and forecast prices will move higher, with ETF holdings rising.
“Fed cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into gold ETFs, a component largely absent of the sharp gold rally observed in the last two years,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
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J.P. Morgan this week noted that retail-focused ETF builds will be key to a further sustained gold rally and projected prices to move towards a 2025 peak target of $2,850.
Spot gold touched a record of $2,639.95 per ounce on Tuesday, driven by hopes of further monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yield bullion and it is considered a safe asset amid turmoil.
“The foundation of the current fresh ETF demand has been that rates are coming down but it leaves the question whether investors are prepared to buy at such elevated prices,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.
