Media Buying Briefing: How incrementality testing helps tackle cookie, attribution challenges

Some see incrementality as another way to address several industry trends adding to measurement complications, including a crowded digital market, a reliance on platform attribution, and cookie deprecation. A proliferation of more digital channels in recent years makes it more difficult to compete for consumer attention and to know where to most effectively allocate or cut budgets on each platform.

“I think [brands and agencies] just get lost looking at platform data and partner-provided attribution, and they’re not doing enough understanding on their own,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy, a performance agency focused on financial and business intelligence strategies. “No one has a great beat on how to measure omnichannel media.”

Additionally, ongoing cookie deprecation and data privacy concerns disrupt traditional tracking methods through Google Analytics and others — and just using data from platforms, like YouTube or Meta, becomes less reliable or accurate, thanks to anti-tracking moves by Apple, as well as those platforms’ tendency to grade their own homework.

“I’ve seen the dark side of third-party targeting in accuracy’s measurement,” said David Dweck, svp of paid media at Wpromote.

A balancing act

With the ecosystem evolving so rapidly, getting accurate reads on ROI seems even more pressing for agencies to invest in measurement tools. Some 65% of U.S. and U.K. advertisers are using last-click attribution to optimize their campaigns, according to Accenture.

The problem with click-based or view-based attribution methods is they paint incomplete pictures of a brand’s media spend. Often the platform data can over- or under-report performance numbers, causing “a deluge of metrics” from many different sources, explained Ryan Mason, strategic advisor at Markacy.

“[The data] are not so trustworthy when you think about it,” Mason said.

For instance, Markacy cited marketing measurement company Haus research suggesting that 82% of controlled studies showed platform attribution data was off by at least 25% when compared to real outcomes.

It’s why Markacy is building an incrementality testing offering as part of its finance-based marketing processes. The measurement combines customer insights (i.e. from surveys), media mix modeling and other forms of modeling, platform metrics and controlled experiments to determine the incrementality of media investments.

A good example of the agency’s incrementality testing involves shutting off Google brand ads in a certain environment to measure the actual impact on sales. In another experiment, Markacy might turn off Meta nationwide for two weeks and track Amazon sales to see if they dropped. Applying these tests allows brands to analyze multiple touchpoints and understand the customer journey through an incremental view of specific channels, Matheson explained. “So we analyze what was the drop in Amazon sales — if it was low, then not much incrementality,” he added.

From the client perspective, being “very financially-driven” gives them confidence knowing the appropriate platform and non-platform metrics are used to measure media investments, said Bryant Knight, president of golf brand and client Malbon.

However, incrementality requires a large amount of data to test results. This means everything from ad spending to sales data. Sometimes that means upping the budgets to ensure you’re getting the right data. Otherwise, Mason insists that there aren’t many downsides to incrementality testing, assuming that agencies have the data and marketing science expertise: “[You] need to ensure statistical thresholds and make sure the test is executed appropriately,” he said.

Across many consumer brands that it has worked with, Markacy says less than 1% had adequate incrementality testing in place – which the agency estimates can result in an average of 10%-30% of budgets getting misallocated. In particular, the agency found that many businesses, especially those spending below $100 million, lack proper data to optimize their marketing budgets effectively.

“You’d be surprised how many people just don’t even know any of that [data],” Matheson said. “How are you running a business if you don’t know what your customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio is? [Or] if you don’t know which of your 12 investments that you’re making on the media side are really driving in the most new revenue, the most customer growth, right?”

Addressing data and waste challenges

In other words, incrementality testing is another way to surface areas of wasted spending on specific channels or campaigns and guide clients on what to cut. In some cases, clients can save money and achieve the same performance.

Markacy’s Mason listed branded search, like on Amazon or Google search ads and display retargeting, as the most common areas of waste right now. “[Often you] get the same result without spending so much,” he said.

Prabhpreet Sidhu, vp of analytics at Mars United Commerce, echoed the need for testing and tracking the impact of client investments. Publicis last month acquired Mars United Commerce to boost its full-funnel marketing. Mars similarly employs a mixture of testing depending on the channel, like A/B testing, causal impact analysis, geolocation experiments and MMM to get incremental insights, Sidhu explained.

“The type of testing also depends on the retailer and data type,” Sidhu said. For instance, it can depend on whether there is access to impression exposure logs, or tracking the number of times an ad is shown to a user. This allows for user-based A/B testing. If user-level data isn’t available, they can look at product-based A/B testing.

Incrementalality tests can also provide “quick reads” on their performance metrics and allow agencies to adjust faster in a changing marketplace, added Wpromote’s Dweck. Wpromote’s Polaris marketing platform, launched in 2021, incorporated incrementality design in 2023 to help identify what drives lifts on a channel basis. Dweck noted about 20-30 of its clients are using incrementality testing, representing about 50-60% of total media spend.

Dweck cited an example of CTV inventory becoming overpriced. For instance, the agency can shut off CTV advertising in specific geographic areas and compare the results to control groups to isolate the impact of CTV on sales, website traffic or brand awareness. Then the brand may make adjustments by shifting programmatic video advertising spending to CTV advertising, since incrementality testing revealed that it had a low impact on driving new customers and revenue.

Especially with clients spending in the millions, it becomes imperative to know how and where their dollars are working. Dweck argued that the more ways agencies can use metrics to “challenge [client] assumptions,” the better they can add value.

“For our largest clients that spend hundreds of millions of dollars, we’re always [considering] incrementality testing,” Dweck said, “because there’s always something else to uncover, whether it’s a different creative mix or a different media mix or different spend levels. It’s something that we want to make sure is evergreen.”

Although it starts tomorrow, if you’re in Southern California, come join us at Digiday’s fall 2024 Media Buying Summit, which takes place at the Ritz Carlton Rancho Mirage resort in Palm Springs. Running through the morning of Oct. 17, come hear speakers including keynote speaker Crossmedia CEO Kamran Asghar as well as sessions touching on influencers/creators, retail media, media mix modeling, data and privacy, DEI and political advertising.

Color by numbers

Media planners may need to consider some adjustments when it comes to reaching the Baby Boomer audience. This group (over age 55) is expected to spend more than half of their media time online, using social media, Connected TV and online news – but brands aren’t keeping up with this audience. WARC Media’s latest Global Advertising Trends report on the shift of media behavior in Boomers suggests that advertising has a ways to go in reaching this cohort as they increasingly shift to digital content. Some stats:

• In 2013, Boomers spent 31.6% of all media time on digital channels. That share increased to 53% in 2023.
• By next year, those ages 55-64 in the U.S. are forecast to spend 93 daily average minutes with social media.
• Only 12% of Boomers say they feel “positive” about advertising — below the 47% benchmark for all consumers.
• The top areas of digital consumption include online TV streaming, up 195% since 2015 as they tune it to Netflix and YouTube on their TV screens, and Facebook, where they make up the largest slice at 29% of the weekly users in the U.S.
• However, TikTok is not their jam – Boomers make up only 9% of the weekly users in the U.S.

Takeoff & landing

• Both IAS and Zefr announced partnerships with Meta; IAS is employing blocking technology that empowers brands to automatically avoid placing ads next to content they find unsuitable, while Zefr‘s expands third-party exclusion capabilities and better control over ad placements across content on Facebook and Instagram Feed and Reels.
• BGD Media is a new creator media agency formed from the merger of influencer marketing firm Black Girl Digital and celebrity business management company The BBM Agency.
• Personnel moves: IPG’S Mediahub named Nicole Estebanell its new U.S. CEO, moving over from sibling agency Initiative where she was global chief client officer. She replaces Sean Corcoran who’s taken a role at BarkleyOKRP … Omnicom Media Group Australia and New Zealand CEO Peter Horgan is leaving the company in early 2025 — a replacement search is underway … Dept tapped Carryn Quibell as its new CEO of the Americas, moving up from svp of clients and technology and replacing Missy Foristall … Media agency Croud hired Frederick Stallings to be its first chief data officer, coming over from the same position at creative agency Fig … Digital media agency JConnelly promoted Jami Schlicher to chief strategy officer from managing director.

Direct quote

“Not all consumers look alike when it comes to their level of comfort with data sharing … You actually start to see that people grouped by their willingness to share data and their level of understanding around sharing data. It doesn’t necessarily align to traditional generational differences. It’s not as though Gen Z are all willing to give you whatever you want versus Boomers.”

— Joanna O’Connell, chief intelligence officer at Omnicom Media Group, talking about the latest research to understand consumers’ attitudes on data privacy.

Speed reading

• Michael Bürgi covered a series of moves during Advertising Week by Omnicom Media Group along with several industry organizations to achieve greater transparency in digital ad auctions, as well as when generative AI is applied to the practice.
• I looked at how some independent media agencies like Apollo Partners and Journey Further are employing aggressive strategies to find new growth.
• Alexander Lee got the scoop on WPP’s GroupM joining Roblox’s Partner Program by forming a global content and ad partnership. Dentsu was the initial holding company to join the program when it as formed last year.