New data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) says there is no scenario in which Ireland will meet its 2030 solar deployment capacity of 8 GW. With existing measures in place, the reality would be more like 5 GW, the government-run group estimates.
Ireland risks under delivering by up to 2.9 GW on its national 2030 solar PV deployment target of 8 GW. That is according to a new report published by the SEAI.
The government-funded group’s National Energy Projections 2024 report contains the main findings of its latest national energy projections, which examine future energy use in Ireland under different scenarios.
It finds that even with additional measures in place to support renewable energy, the country will under deliver on solar capacity deployment. With existing measures in place, the authority estimates Ireland’s solar deployment will come in at just under 5 GW in 2030. The country is unlikely to reach 8 GW by 2040 if current measures continue. The assumed best estimate trajectory under current measures is 2.2 GW by 2025 and 5.7 GW by 2030.
Even if additional measures are implemented, deployment capacity is unlikely to come close to the 2030 targets. According to SEAI projections, it will be under 5.5 GW. The 8 GW goal may not be reached until after 2036. The additional measures value comes from the best-case trajectory with additional solar PV rooftop capacity in comparison to current measures. The SEAI estimates that additional measures would not have any impact on the projected 2.2 GW by 2030, but they could potentially see the 2030 installed capacity jump to 6.5 GW – still 1.5 GW under the agreed 8 GW goal.
The impact of delayed target achievement is modeled for several core measures including the deployment of solar, wind, district heating networks, retrofitting and renewable heating technology in buildings, and bioenergy. Solar PV deployment is the second-highest category at risk of under delivery, behind offshore wind – which is at risk of 5 GW under delivery by 2030.
“It is evident that, to date, the sustainable energy policy package under development, and as detailed in Ireland’s Climate Action Plans, is neither sufficient nor delivering quickly enough to keep pace with necessary target trajectories,” said the report. It said that industrial demand for energy is a major pressure point, and if the country experiences the same demand for energy from industry as it did between 2011 and 2022, it will need significant renewables contingency plans in place.
“Without a significant bolstering of existing policies, and the addition of new policies and measures, which include expanding incentives, enhancing information, and applying regulation, we are unlikely to meet our national and EU obligations. It is critically important that every effort is made to ramp up both public and private sector capacity to deliver what has been set out in plans so far, and to address underlying issues that could further slow progress.”
The agency called for tariffs for heat pumps as well as incentives for electric vehicles (EVs). It said that there are significant cultural barriers when it comes to decarbonizing transport in particular, as Ireland has a high level of private car ownership.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
Popular content
