College Football Playoff Projections: Week 14 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

The only meaningful version of the College Football Playoff rankings is released on Selection Day.

After a weekend just loaded with upsets, however, the Week 14 edition of the committee’s Top 25 is actually very informative. How would the group respond to a disastrous day for the SEC? We have our answer.

Alabama and Ole Miss dropped to 13th and 14th, respectively, sitting on the wrong side of the Playoff cutline.

The wild weekend had a major impact on bowl projections, too. Entering the last slate of the regular season, we have 77 eligible teams for 82 slots. But there are 16 programs with a five-win record. As suspected, there will likely be more options than available postseason games.

The following picks are subjective but are based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Notre Dame

6. Miami

7. Georgia

8. Tennessee

9. SMU

10. Indiana

11. Boise State

12. Clemson

13. Alabama

14. Ole Miss

15. South Carolina

16. Arizona State

17. Tulane

18. Iowa State

19. BYU

20. Texas A&M

21. Missouri

22. UNLV

23. Illinois

24. Kansas State

25. Colorado

Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Toledo vs. Louisiana
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Bowling Green vs. Connecticut
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Marshall
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): South Florida vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. James Madison
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai’i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Jacksonville State vs. Arkansas State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): New Mexico vs. South Alabama
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: New Mexico Lobos

More than anything, New Mexico has to topple Hawai’i. If that doesn’t happen, the Lobos finish 5-7 and aren’t eligible anyway. If they win, though, one massive advantage is the school hosts a postseason game. If you want to guarantee attendance—read: make more money—that’ll be an appeal for the ESPN-owned-and-operated bowl.

Trending Down: Texas State Bobcats

Although the Bobcats are eligible, are they within the fringe group? Texas State won’t finish high in the Sun Belt standings, so the league’s top five invitations will likely go elsewhere. Friday’s trip to South Alabama may be a “play-in” of sorts with both programs at 6-5.

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): UTSA vs. Rutgers
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Cal
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Miami (Ohio) vs. Michigan State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. TCU
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. West Virginia

Trending Up: Cal Golden Bears

Whether or not a former Pac-12 team makes the Playoff could have a major impact on Cal’s travel distance. If, for example, Arizona State continues its surge but Oregon State does not beat Boise State for a sixth win, Cal could play in the LA Bowl (in nearby Los Angeles) instead of the Independence Bowl (Shreveport, Louisiana).

Trending Down: Virginia Tech Hokies

None of the Hokies’ last three losses are surprising; they fell at Syracuse, home to Clemson and at Duke. Still, they remain stuck on the five-win mark. Virginia Tech hosts rival Virginia in a clash of 5-6 teams. Winner goes to a bowl, loser watches the postseason at home.

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Florida vs. North Carolina State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Wisconsin vs. Texas Tech
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Baylor vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): USC vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. Nebraska
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. Washington State

Trending Up: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Can the Jackets slay another giant? They toppled Miami earlier in November and head to rival Georgia this weekend. Either way, Georgia Tech has climbed into a more favorable bowl position thanks to the SEC chaos reopening the possibility of the ACC sending two teams to the CFP.

Trending Down: Wisconsin Badgers

Similar to Virginia Tech, this recent slide—against Penn State, at Iowa and opposite Oregon—was not necessarily unexpected. But after a lopsided loss at Nebraska, the Badgers’ 22-year postseason streak hinges on Friday’s matchup with Minnesota.

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Michigan vs. Oklahoma
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): BYU vs. LSU
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Syracuse vs. South Carolina
First Responder (Jan. 3): Kansas vs. Vanderbilt
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Minnesota

Trending Up: Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma, meanwhile, pulled off a resounding upset of Alabama to make it 26 straight bowl trips for the program. Brent Venables has plenty of questions to answer this offseason—particularly about the offense—but at least his once-sizzling hot seat is more comfortable.

Trending Down: BYU Cougars

Well, the breakout season was fun while it lasted. Back-to-back losses have dropped BYU from the Big 12’s last unbeaten team and a projected CFP qualifier to the wrong side of most potential tiebreakers and a less prominent destination for the postseason.

First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that’s not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Boise State*, MWC champion in Fiesta Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 SMU at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Notre Dame (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Arizona State* (Big 12 champion) at No. 8 Georgia (winner to Rose Bowl)

Trending Up: Controversy

For years, I’ve stuck to one philosophy: I am fine if the CFP expands, but don’t pretend like there is a perfect solution. We argue whether the 68 teams in the NCAA tournament all deserve it; do you think we’re not going to debate the difference between 11, 12, 13 and 14 in football? Given the number of three-loss SEC teams now on the fringe of the rankings, get ready for disagreement.

Teams to Watch: Indiana, Miami and SMU

My belief is any 11-1 power-conference team should be locked into the Playoff. Want to talk about Indiana’s light schedule? Blame the Big Ten, not the Hoosiers. Not sold on Miami and SMU making the CFP after the ACC Championship Game? Maybe your favorite SEC team shouldn’t lose to multiple unranked foes. Seeing conference title games—a non-guaranteed, earned achievement—morph into a season-defining penalty would be disgraceful.