Today, I wanted to see how NFL offenses have fared in scoring touchdowns in the red area, considering the Pittsburgh Steelers offense just put up their highest point total (44) in Week 13. That fact is awesome, in a typically low scoring duke it out Steelers identity, but the offense showed it’s capable with a historically great performance in many ways.
QB Russell Wilson’s insertion in Week Seven is the head of that snake, notably taking the pass game to a new level, compared to Justin Fields the first six games (respectively). The goal of the article is to see what has transpired in 2024, and see what it could mean for Pittsburgh moving forward.
First, let’s look at red zone touchdown rates per drive for offenses in the 2024 season:
Despite an encouraging 9-3 record, and nice strides from Pittsburgh’s offense, a huge bugaboo has been scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Their 45.2 red zone TD rate ranks 29th in the NFL, one of only six teams below 50-percent. Most of them are struggling to boot: 49ers (5-7), Raiders (2-10), Patriots (3-10), Cowboys (5-7), Giants (2-10).
All losing records except for Pittsburgh (9-3), which will hopefully improve to aid their ultimate goals of playoff success, and possibly earn the praise from some of looking like Super Bowl contenders even more. One of the main things needed before I’m ready to go that far.
In fact, the red zone offense was better with Fields the first six games, with a 50.0-percent red zone TD rate that tied for 19th at the time. Through Week 6, Pittsburgh’s offense had 18 red zone drives (T-13th), and nine red zone TDs (T-18th). On the season, through Week 13, 42 red zone drives (14th) and 19 red zone TDs (T-21st).
So, Pittsburgh’s offense has been slightly above average at getting to the red zone, but below the line at coming away with six points, including the downtrend since Wilson became the starter. Having K Chris Boswell is a blessing, who leads the NFL in points scored, including red zone settles though.
Seeing the rest of Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents largely above average in these terms, is a scary proposition. The rest of the AFC North ranks in the top seven, particularly Baltimore and Cincinnati topping the NFL. The bright side is Pittsburgh’s offense kept up with the Bengals on the scoreboard last game, but the question is whether the Steelers can do that consistently when needed. Red zone improvements on offense would sure help.
Next, I wanted to see the progression from a weekly standpoint, to see how things have trended. Here are those red zone touchdown rates, this time looking on a play-by-play basis (spikes, kneels, aborted plays removed) to gain that context:
On a play-by-play basis, we get even more context to the overall red zone struggles in 2024. Here are the weekly red zone numbers:
Week 1 vs. ATL: 11 attempts, 10 runs, 1 pass, 0.0 TD rate.
Week 2 vs. DEN: 6 attempts, 1 run, 5 passes (TE Darnell Washington 5-yard TD), 16.7 TD rate.
Week 3 vs. LAC: 9 attempts, 6 runs (Fields 5-yard TD), 3 passes, 11.1 TD rate.
Week 4 vs. IND: 13 attempts, 5 runs (Fields 2 & 5 yard TDs), 8 passes (TE Pat Freiermuth 8-yard TD), 23.1 TD rate.
Week 5 vs. DAL: 4 attempts, 1 run, 4 passes (TE Connor Heyward 16-yard TD, Freiermuth 6 yard TD), 50.0 TD rate.
Week 6 vs. LV: 10 attempts, 8 runs (Fields 7- & 3-yard TDs), 2 passes, 20.0 TD rate.
Week 7 vs. NYJ: 20 attempts, 13 runs (RB Najee Harris 10-yard TD, QB Russell Wilson 3-yard TD), 7 passes (WR George Pickens 11-yard TD, WR Van Jefferson 4-yard TD), 20.0 TD rate.
Week 8 vs. NYG: 10 attempts, 5 runs, 5 passes, 0.0 TD rate.
Week 9 BYE.
Week 10 vs. WAS: 12 attempts, 8 runs (Harris 1-yard TD), 4 passes (Pickens 16-yard TD, Freiermuth 3-yard TD), 25.0 TD rate.
Week 11 vs. BAL: 13 attempts, 4 runs, 9 passes, 0.0 TD rate.
Week 12 vs. CLE: 5 attempts, 3 runs (RB Jaylen Warren 3-yard TD), 2 passes, 20.0 TD rate.
Week 13 vs. CIN: 7 attempts, 4 runs (Harris 10-yard TD), 3 passes (Pickens 17-yard TD), 28.6 TD rate.
The Steelers offense was below the line in eight out of 12 games, including three with no TDs (Weeks One, Eight, and 11). Ironically, those were all wins, but largely lower scoring outputs and most recently the 18-16 victory over the Ravens.
Typically a potent offense, and in the red zone, Pittsburgh’s defense deserves a lot of credit as they were stifling opponents as a top five unit. That has down-trended of late, now ranked 15th in the NFL. Here’s to hoping they can get back to dominating as they were most of the season, starting with the Browns next game, and remedying the 4-4 red zone TD drives they allowed.
Looking back, Fields had two above the line games (Weeks Four and Five), both of his losses as a starter. Some of that points to tighter reigns on him than Wilson, and loosening them as a passer when game circumstances dictated. Nine red zone TDs in Fields’ six games, with him running it in five times, and 3-of-4 passing TDs were in losses.
Comparing that to Wilson’s six games, there have been more opportunities for starters. Wilson and company have 67 red zone plays to 53 with Fields at the helm. 13 attempts was the game-high for him, compared to 20 a 2024-high with Wilson in his first start (Week 7). That featured a season-best four red zone TDs, but was one of four games that had a below the line red zone TD rate.
The team overcame that, going 3-and-1 in those matchups. Imagine if Pittsburgh finds more consistency in quality red zone production, lessening the gap between their respectable quantity getting there.
Positive TD rates since Wilson took over include Week 10 and Week 13 against Cincinnati last Sunday. Both wins featured two red zone TDs. What also stands out with Wilson is getting Pickens involved, after no red zone TDs the first six games. In fact, all three of his TDs in 2024 have come in the red zone, including last weeks win.
Another encouraging development recently is RB rushing TDs, after having none from the red zone the first six games. Three from Harris since Week Seven, including one last game. Warren also got his first of 2024 in Week 12 versus Cleveland. They are up next on the schedule, and Pittsburgh will surely be looking to take it to them after them recently falling in upset fashion in the majority’s eyes.
Another concern is a fall in red zone attempts the last two games. Just five in that Cleveland matchup, along with seven last week. The latter wasn’t an issue overall, scoring before reaching the end zone on multiple occasions enroute to 44 points. But just five against Cleveland’s defense that’s 24th in red zone TD drives allowed wasn’t nearly good enough.
Hopefully that looks much different in the Week 14 rematch on both sides of the ball. That would of course aid a victory and improvements for the rest of the season, optimistically. The potential is all there, and if Pittsburgh can achieve this, it would be the icing on the cake and even more impressive ceiling the Pittsburgh Steelers offense can reach.
Here’s to hoping for just that in the final stretch of the 2024 season.
