Juan Soto’s Legendary $765M Contract Will Be a Home Run for Steve Cohen, Mets

For Juan Soto, there was never an outcome for the 2024-25 offseason that didn’t involve getting showered in a historic amount of cash.

Well, the result of Soto’s free agency is now there to be gawked at: The New York Mets for 15 years and $765 million dollars, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

This is it, folks. The Big One. Soto’s deal is both the longest and the most expensive contract in MLB history.

Before the Mets and owner Steve Cohen struck a deal with Soto and agent Scott Boras, the longest contract ever handed to a major league player was the 14-year extension that the San Diego Padres did with Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2021.

As to total dollars, Soto’s deal tops Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million pact with the Los Angeles Dodgers from last winter. And while that contract is technically for 10 years, it is really a 20-year deal with $680 million in deferments awaiting collection between 2034 and 2043.

The present-day value of Ohtani’s contract is more like $460 million. That is barely higher than the $447.5 million that Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $252 million contract from 2001 would be worth in 2024 dollars.

Neither dollar figure holds a candle to what the 26-year-old Soto is now worth. It is unequivocally a lot for him to live up to, yet it’s hard to even feign skepticism that he will.

These Deals Tend to Work Out

It’s understandable if signings this big trigger a nervous instinct. After all, scanning the list of the highest-paid players in MLB history is a good way to practice your daily wincing.

Yet let’s narrow the focus to where it belongs: on long-term deals for free agents who were A) only in their mid-20s and B) in the thick of superstardom.

It was a short list even before Soto’s name was added, consisting only of Rodriguez and Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, who signed for 13 years, $330 million and 10 years, $300 million, respectively, in 2019.

It bodes well for Soto that not one of those deals resembles a mistake. Consider those three guys’ WAR-based value (via FanGraphs) in relation to their earnings (via Spotrac):

There’s obviously a lot more to say about all three deals, but the message of a more long-winded spiel would be the same: If the Mets have their way, Soto will make it 4-for-4 in deals of this sort yielding massive wins.

Soto’s Quality As a Hitter Can’t Be Overstated

This is, functionally, a $765million bet on a bat. But not just any bat, of course.

Juan Soto’s bat.

Here’s where he ranks since he debuted with the Washington Nationals in 2018:

Soto is otherwise one of only 16 hitters to get through his first 936 games with a .400 OBP and 200 home runs. Only three before him did so before turning 26: Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Albert Pujols.

This is where it’s tempting to say, “And he’s only getting better.” But that would not, strictly speaking, be true.

What Soto is doing is getting more comfortable in a Groove of Excellence. Each of his last five seasons has featured more walks than strikeouts and an OBP over .400. He set a career high for homers with 35 in 2023, only to break it with 41 for the cross-town Yankees this year.

This is just what’s on the surface. Suffice it to say that Soto’s Baseball Savant page is where red bars go to thrive.

As a playoff performer, Mantle’s name comes up again as a comp for Soto’s .927 OPS and 11 homers in October. And the bigger the moment, the more dangerous he tends to become.

Soto Could Be Like Harper in a Less-Than-Ideal Way

To return to how the Rodriguez, Harper and Machado signings paved the way for Soto, there comes a point where it’s hard to compare him to Rodriguez and Machado.

Rodriguez was useful outside the batter’s box as a baserunner and a defender. Baserunning has never been Machado’s thing, but he’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who remains eminently playable at third base.

These qualities don’t apply to Soto. He’s 57-for-80 stealing bases for his career. And while he can accurately call himself a Gold Glove finalist, the rest of us can just as accurately call him a liability in the outfield.

It doesn’t strain belief to think that Soto will move away from the outfield—if not to designated hitter, then at least to first base.

If so, Soto’s contract with the Mets will end up on the same road that the Phillies are traveling with Harper. And there’s no going back to the pre-2023 days, as his move from right field to first base is indeed permanent.

If Soto Is Like Harper, That’s Fine

Here’s the thing about Harper, though: His move down the defensive spectrum is befitting of his ongoing move up the offensive spectrum.

Though Harper was a very good hitter in his first seven seasons with the Nationals, he has been an appreciably better hitter in his six seasons with the Phillies:

The Mets would gladly accept a similar progression on Soto’s part, though it’s more instructive to consider his small ring of historical peers.

Concerning the aforementioned trio of Foxx, Mantle and Pujols, each hit at least 300 more home runs after turning 26. Foxx and Mantle also carried .400 OBPs for the remainder of their careers, while Pujols kept his OBP above .400 for another five years before succumbing to the brutal aging curve for right-right first basemen.

This is reason enough for the Mets to pencil Soto in for a .400 OBP and 30 homers annually for the foreseeable future. Then there’s what may be Soto’s only underrated skill. The dude posts, playing in 95 percent of all games since his debut on May 20, 2018.

And lest anyone forget, it’s not all about what Soto does on the field.

The other currency star players offer is popularity, which can make an immediate difference whenever one puts on new threads. For example, Harper’s signing in 2019 sparked a surge in the Phillies’ ticket sales. He also went from No. 13 to No. 1 in jersey sales.

It’s a model for Soto not just to follow, but to improve on.

He’s already coming to the Mets with his popularity on an upswing. He was an All-Star starter for the first time this year. And after not cracking the list at all in 2023, he ascended to No. 7 on the best-selling jersey rankings for 2024.

All told, that Soto would be on the receiving end of The Big One shouldn’t surprise anyone. And it’ll likely be a while before The Next Big One comes along.

There will be, say, a $1 billion contract someday, but probably not for a couple of decades. Though Ohtani’s and Soto’s deals have reset the bar for what’s possible, one is the only true two-way star in MLB history and the other is a once-in-a-generation hitter. You just can’t expect players like this to come along as if delivered by conveyor belt.

Which is pretty much to say that we’re going to be gawking at Soto’s contract for a long time. And whenever The Next Big One happens, the Soto deal will stand not as a cautionary tale, but as proof of concept.