The Philadelphia Eagles are heading down I-95 this weekend to take on the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field. It’s the first time this season the Eagles are playing an opponent for a second time with the Birds previously beating the Commies in Week 11.
In order to preview this Week 16 NFC East battle, I reached out to our enemies over at Hogs Haven. The awesome Andrew York kindly kindly took the time to answer my questions about this upcoming tilt. Let’s take a look at the answers. [For my answers about the Eagles, stay tuned to HH.]
1) The Commanders have played three games since losing to the Eagles: a surprise home loss to the Cowboys, a blowout home victory over the Titans, and a down-to-the-wire road win against the Saints. What’s the confidence level in this team right now?
High, but not as high as it was before we played last time around and we were 7-3. I think this team has been tested by tough teams like the Steelers, Eagles, and even the animated corpse of the Cowboys and our weaknesses have come into focus. We’re still able to blow out bad teams, like we did against the Titans, but can come up short against good teams. Different fans have different takes on it, but I think the fundamental problem is lack of talent on the roster. Ron Rivera left this team one of the most talent-poor rosters in the NFL and there was only so much that new GM Adam Peters could do in one offseason.
We have some great players and a bunch of good players, but not nearly the depth of talent possessed by most of the teams that beat us (Bucs, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles). If an opposing team can shut down Terry McLaurin and Kliff can’t scheme someone open using smoke and mirrors, we don’t have a strong alternative receiver to carry the passing game. If RB Brian Robinson isn’t healthy and our OL can’t dominate the opposing DL, our run game gets shut down. If we are facing a team with multiple threats in the passing game, we don’t have the horses in coverage to stop them all (though maybe Lattimore’s addition changes that). That’s what has struck me in the games we lost: the other team just had more good players who could win their matchups.
Still, it’s good that we seem well coached and for the most part our players seem to be playing at the ceiling of their talent. It means that we should continue to beat out bad teams, will probably make a wildcard spot in the playoffs, and will hopefully be even better next year, assuming Adam Peters continues to do a good job of building the team.
2) What’s changed for the Commanders since they last played the Eagles? What’s different about Washington entering this matchup?
The biggest difference is that Marshon Lattimore is finally healthy and played his first game in burgundy and gold last week; he wasn’t targeted in coverage once. That ability to simply remove his WR from the game should be huge for our defense, especially with rookie CB Mike Sainristil having a breakout year as well. Not only does it improve the coverage, it will give DC Joe Whitt more freedom to dial up blitzes or stack the box without having to worry about the back end.
Another difference is that some illness seems to be affecting our offensive line. C Tyler Biadasz had to sit last week due to illness and the entire offensive line seemed to take a step back as a result. Now Biadasz is healthy, but RG Sam Cosmi (one of our better players) is missing practice due to illness. Hopefully he can play this week, but we’ll see. I mentioned in our last 5Qs that we are still thin at many positions and can ill afford to lose starters. If any of our starting IOL can’t play, the entire OL will have a bad day (like they did against the Saints).
3) Bringing back this question from our last exchange: how should the Eagles go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
On offense, I would still say focus on runs to the edge, as our edge defenders are more suited to rushing the passer than stopping the run. We’re still learning how Lattimore’s addition will change the defense, but I expect we’re no longer going to be as vulnerable to passes outside the numbers, so maybe focus on passes to the middle of the field, where our safeties and linebackers are more likely to give up receptions.
On defense, I would say use DL stunts to confuse our OL, as they’ve looked vulnerable to it in the past. Most of our OL are new to the team, it’s their first year playing together, and sometimes it shows. Play Jayden Daniels the way you would play Lamar Jackson: rushing four, using good gap discipline to deny him run lanes, and a QB spy to follow him. If you can find a way to shut down Terry McLaurin (like Quinyon Mitchell did last time), shutting down the rest of the passing game should be a lot easier.
4) Let’s pretend the Commanders are allowed to steal one player from the Eagles’ roster. Who are they taking and why?
Probably Jordan Mailata or Quinyon Mitchell. Both are young, exceptional players at premium positions. Although our rookie LT Brandon Coleman has shown flashes of being a long-term starter, Mailata would be guaranteed to lock down the most important position (in my mind) outside of QB for a long time. He would also free up Coleman to potentially move to RT, where we could also use an upgrade. Quinyon Mitchell wouldn’t fill as much of a need (now that we have Lattimore), but a CB trio of Lattimore and Mitchell outside with Sainristil in the slot (his more natural role) could be the best CB group in the NFL. Mitchell is also only in the first year of his rookie contract, so the cap savings would be great.
5) Who wins this game and why? With the Eagles currently listed as 3.5-point road favorites, what’s your score prediction? And then what’re you expecting from the rest of this Commanders season?
I think the Eagles will probably win because they won last time we matched up and the teams aren’t substantially different. However, I do think Lattimore’s presence will be felt and it will be a closer, lower-scoring game, maybe 17-14 in favor of the Eagles. Rest of season, I expect the Commanders to beat the Falcons, as I think our roster stacks up well to theirs and it’ll be a Dan Quinn revenge game, though Michael Penix will be an X factor. I also expect us to beat the Cowboys, because we should have beat them last time and I don’t think we’ll fall flat twice to the same team starting a backup QB. That’ll give us an overall record of 11-6, which should be enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard, but probably lose in our first playoff game. All told, an impressive rebound for a team that earned the #2 overall pick in the draft last season.
