This Future of TV Briefing covers the latest in streaming and TV for Digiday+ members and is distributed over email every Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET. More from the series →
This week’s Future of TV Briefing looks at how a second Trump Administration may change the TV, streaming and digital video landscape.
There’s no shortage of questions about what a second Trump Administration may mean for the future of, well, everything.
But that’s obviously overwhelming to think about. So let’s whittle down to what are the implications for the future of TV, streaming and digital video.
Will there be a new era of mega-mergers?
President Donald Trump seems poised to remake the regulatory landscape into one that is much more open to mega-mergers and much less concerned with antitrust issues.
I mean, just listen to none other than the orchestrator of major mergers like Discovery and Scripps Networks and then Discovery and WarnerMedia. The second Trump administration “may offer a pace of change and an opportunity for consolidation,” said Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav during the company’s latest quarterly earnings call on Nov. 7.
Conventional wisdom seems to hold that Trump will replace Lina Khan as head of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, which would remove the primary opponent to mega-mergers during the Biden Administration. Additionally, Trump has called into question the idea of breaking up Google over antitrust violations. All of which seems to swing open the door for Zaslav to once again find a suitor for his current company.
Will TV shows skew toward more conservative programming?
Elections are obviously political referendums, but they can also provide a gauge of sorts for public sentiment. And with the sentiment in this year’s election leaning conservative, it raises the question of whether TV networks and streaming services will follow suit.
This seems to be already underway. As Business Insider recently reported, Amazon Prime Video and Netflix are rolling out more faith- and family-oriented fare. Meanwhile, Chick-fil-A’s impending streaming service will also center around family-friendly programming.
And there’s another reason to expect more “faith & family” programming in the coming years…
How will the ad market react?
Given how volatile Trump’s first term was, there’s little reason to believe his second will be any less turbulent. Which has its pros and cons for the ad market.
His first term led to a rise in news viewership, creating more inventory for TV news networks to sell. But advertisers don’t like controversy. They like candy and rainbows and all the things that will make someone feel good about spending money. Candy and rainbows may be in short supply over the next four years — unless Disney+ commissions a “Care Bears” reboot.
Besides, if Trump’s planned tariffs result in rising costs for companies and prices for consumers, the TV and streaming ad market may face a similar situation to 2023 in which macroeconomic conditions create headwinds that slow ad sales.
Will TikTok survive?
Within Trump’s first 100 days in office, TikTok is set to be banned in the U.S. unless its parent company ByteDance divests the short-form video app.
Considering Trump had tried to ban TikTok during his previous term, it stands to reason that TikTok is not long for this part of the world. But during his most recent campaign, Trump had pledged to “never ban TikTok.” And it’s just as likely that the incoming president tries to undo the divestment order, with Trump’s advisers reportedly expecting as much.
An X factor in the matter is Elon Musk. The X owner is reportedly playing a heavy hand in the incoming administration and could see an opportunity to use his influence to steer TikTok into the hands of the platform formerly called Twitter.
Whither AI?
Given Trump’s laissez-faire regulatory approach and the Musk of it all — the future of generative AI technology is anyone’s guess. Trump had said he will repeal Biden’s executive order that put constraints around AI development, but then Musk has been a proponent of reining in AI.
What does any of that have to do with the future of TV, streaming and video? Well, generative AI is already intersecting with entertainment. There’s the Lionsgate-RunwayML deal. SAG-AFTRA’s agreements with Narrativ and Ethovox. And OpenAI, Google and Meta — among many others — are developing text-to-video generative AI tools. And as much as these are all very much tools, they are also growing threats to human jobs as their capabilities improve.
So the Trump Administration could pave a path to significantly either accelerate or decelerate the development of these generative AI technologies. Which path will he take? As with all the other questions being asked here, who knows?
What we’ve heard
“Brands leverage creators for their ability to produce original, platform-native content that feels more authentic, building brand awareness. Influencers, on the other hand, can offer elements of that, but it’s the access to a pre-built audience that makes them ideal for driving immediate impact.”
— Wpromote’s Ana Arnet on the difference between creators and influencers
Numbers to know
70 million: Number of people each month who use Netflix’s ad-supported tier.
110.5 million: Number of streaming subscribers that Warner Bros. Discovery had at the end of the third quarter of 2024.
72 million: Number of subscribers that Paramount+ had at the end of Q3 2024.
11.8 million: Number of streaming subscribers that AMC Networks had at the end of Q3 2024.
-800,000: Number of streaming subscribers that Starz lost in Q3 2024.
19.1 million: Number of active accounts for Vizio’s SmartCast CTV platform in Q3 2024.
65%: Percentage of the U.S. connected TV device market that is shared by Amazon, Roku and Samsung.
What we’ve covered
Trump, the manosphere and the marketer’s creator dilemma:
- Trump’s campaign capitalized on misogynistic, male influencers to curry favor with conservative voters.
- The rise of the so-called “manosphere” is forcing marketers to question whether to similarly use this specific influencer network to reach audiences at the risk of brand safety and suitability.
Read more about marketers’ creator dilemma here.
Why the ad industry is redefining what it means to be a creator vs. influencer:
- Supposedly creators and influencers aren’t two terms referring to the same thing.
- The underlying issue seems to be a sense that “influencer” is an outdated term.
Read more about creators vs. influencers here.
What we’re reading
The House of Mouse has broadened its batch of potential successors to CEO Bob Iger to include outside candidates like Electronic Arts chief Andrew Wilson, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Netflix’s live programming sandbox:
The predominantly on-demand streamer is using live shows like “Dinner Time Live” and “Live From the Other Side with Tyler Henry” to test out its live-streaming capabilities ahead of its NFL Christmas Day game broadcasts, according to Bloomberg.
The Microsoft-owned business-centric social network has been building itself into being a home not just for “broetry” but also for creators’ videos, with uploads having increased 34% year over year, according to Adweek.
Streaming’s subscriber pauses:
Streaming subscribers have a habit of canceling and renewing subscriptions with some regularity, so streaming services have started to roll out tools to enable people to pause their subscriptions, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The U.K.’s future of TV forum:
The British government has formed a focus group of sorts with TV network owners and local regulator Ofcom that will meet to sort out the future of linear TV as viewership shifts to streaming but some viewers stick with traditional TV, according to Deadline.
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