By Charles Kennedy – May 27, 2024, 9:10 AM CDT
Global oil demand is set to grow for at least another decade, according to Goldman Sachs analysts, who see slowing momentum of electric vehicle sales keeping oil product demand robust until 2034.
Analysts at the Wall Street bank raised their forecast of oil demand in 2030 to 108.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 106 million bpd previously expected, in a report carried by Reuters.
Goldman Sachs now expects global oil demand to peak in 2034, at around 110 million bpd. This will be followed by years of plateau oil demand until around 2040, according to the bank’s analysts led by Nikhil Bhandari.
“We expect peak oil demand to occur by 2034 at 110 million bpd; subsequently, we project a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decline of 0.3% till 2040,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in the report.
Most of the world’s global oil demand growth will come from emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, say the analysts, echoing the views of all other forecasters who expect these two economies to be the top contributors to oil demand growth globally in the coming decade.
Separately, Goldman Sachs has recently said in a report that “Sales momentum for electric vehicles (EVs) is slowing globally, and hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are proving more competitive than first thought.”
“As sales flag, Goldman Sachs Research analyst Kota Yuzawa says the team’s bear case for EV sales is becoming more likely.”
Slowing BEV sales are the result of rising concerns around EV capital costs, uncertainty around government policies with the U.S. and other elections this year, and concerns about a shortage of rapid-charging stations, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Several automakers have said that concerns about driving range and charging infrastructure are increasing. These issues may lead consumers to have second thoughts about buying an EV,” Goldman’s Yuzawa said.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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